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Sunday, February 27, 2011

Oscar night has arrived. You better be excited.

If you know me well, you know that I watch movies religiously, and for anyone (well most) who do so, the Academy Awards are one hell of a big deal. It's like our Superbowl, our Hanukkah (gosh I hope I spelled that right,) our Thanksgiving. It is like the Santa Claus that exists, except he is a little golden man who is handed out to actors/filmakers, and there's 24 of him.

So Anne Hathaway and James Franco are hosting it. Do I want them to be good? Yes. Do I think they wil be good? No. I know, I know, you are probably %$#&^*ing at me right now, but before you do, I think I should say that I love both Anne Hathaway and James Franco; I just don't think that they are right to host the Oscars, let alone together. Maybe the fact that they are collaborating will make it easier for them to play off each other, or maybe it will make it worst in the case that they have no chemistry whatsoever.

This year, like last year, there are ten nominees for Best Picture, unlike the usual five. I myself prefer five, but whatever. There are only five films that would deserve to be in the Best Picture category if there were only five nominees, and these are also the ones that have, if any, chance of winning. These are Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The King's Speech, and The Social Network. Usually, these would go hand and hand with the Best Director nominees, except instead of Christopher Nolan being nominated for his absolutely phenomenal work in Inception,  the Coen brothers were given their THIRD nomination for True Grit. Thats not to say that True Grit wasn't a good film, but its just that Inception was so much better, and Christopher Nolan completely deserved being nominated, if not winning, this category.

My favorite film of the 2010 was Black Swan, but it has barely any chance of winning Best Picture. The only two real contendors here are The King's Speech  and The Social Network. Since the nominations were announced, and ever since the award season began, I was absoutely sure that it was The Social Network that was going to win Best Picure. It is a perfect period piece of our generation, is new, and takes a completely difficult subject into something incredible innovating. This is just what the Academy needs, I thought, to try to win a new, younger audience. On the other hand, The King's Speech is the typical Oscar favorite. A period piece, a historical film, and a story about royalty and a complex character overcomming a complex problem. However, I thought that The King's Speech' was too much like the usual Oscar winner, and this was precisely the reason why the Academy would vote against it; to try to be different, fresh, and new.

But now my opinion has changed.

This is a head to head battle much like last year's between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. A new film with new technology, which made more money than any other film in history versus a film anout the war in Iraq. I wanted The Hurt Locker to win, but I was almost absolutly sure that it was Avatar that would be taking the prize. I was glad when this wasn't the case.

This was something that got me thinking. Maybe the Academy will vote for The King's Speech. If I had it my way, I would choose it too. But there is one significant difference between this year's battle and last years; Avatar was not a good film. Well that is in my opinion. But it was almost universal that Avatar's script was cliched, and a story that we have all seen before at least a dozen times. Both The Social Network and The King's Speech are both ten times better than Avatar. Perhaps The Social Network is a more technically better film, but I was one of the individuals who prefered The King's Speech. This year, I will go with my instincts and say that The King's Speech will win by only a couple of votes.

Best Director is a category that usually matches the win for Best Picture, but I am certain that this year that won't be the same. I liked The King's Speech better than The Social Network, but I completely agree that David Fincher's work on The Social Network was much more challenging, and that he definetly deserves the award. The best screenplay awards will go to those two films as well.

As for the acting categories, all but one are givens. Natalie Portman will, should, and completely and utterly deserves to win for Best Actress; the same for Colin Firth for Best Actor. If they don't, I will start a protest in front of the Kodak theatre. For Best Supporting Actor, I believe Christian Bale will win over Geoffrey Rush, even though it might go the other way.

Best Supporting Actress is a category I am not fully sure about. Hailee Steinfeld was absolutely amazing in True Grit, and her performance was most definetly a lead performance, not a supportig performance. She is young and new, and for all these reasons she might win. But I think that it will be Melissa Leo that will take home the prize for The Fighter. She has won most of the awards for this category, she is much older, and her performance was incredible. The Academy might gives this away as a "this is her time" award.

Below is my full list of predictions. The nominees are numbered in the order I think their chances are for winning. Many of them could go either way for the first two listed (Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Documentary, Best Original Score,) many I am more unsure of (Best Editing, Visual Effects, Costume Design, Make Up, Art Direction, Cinematography,) and others I outright guessed at (Animated Short, Film Live Action Short Film, Foreign Language Film.)

But on the most part I am pretty confident about these. I hope you watch the Oscars tonight as I and many others will, and I hope that even if you aren't as into movies as I am that perhaps you will get a little bit more into them, and perhaps even make a list of predictions yourself. Either way, I hope you enjoy Oscar night, because then again, it won't come again until next year.


1.                  The King’s Speech
2.                  The Social Network
3.                  Inception
4.                  The Fighter
5.                  Black Swan
6.                  True Grit
7.                  127 Hours
8.                  Winter’s Bone
9.                  The Kids Are All Right
10.              Toy Story 3
1.      David Fincher- The Social Network
2.      Tom Hooper- The King’s Speech
3.      Darren Aronofsky- Black Swan
4.       Joel & Ethan Coen- True Grit
5.      David O. Russell- The Fighter
1.      Colin Firth- The King’s Speech
2.      James Franco- 127 Hours
3.      Jesse Eisenberg- The Social Network
4.      Jeff Bridges- True Grit
5.      Javier Bardem- Biutiful
1.      Natalie Portman- Black Swan
2.      Annette Bening- The Kids Are All Right
3.      Jennifer Lawrence- Winter’s Bone
4.      Nicole Kidman- Rabbit Hole
5.      Michelle Williams- Blue Valentine
1.      Christian Bale- The Fighter
2.      Geoffrey Rush- The King’s Speech
3.      Jeremy Renner- The Town
4.      John Hawkes- Winter’s Bone
5.      Mark Ruffalo- The Kids Are All Right
1.      Melissa Leo- The Fighter
2.      Hailee Steinfeld- True Grit
3.      Helena Bonham Carter- The King’s Speech
4.      Amy Adams- The Fighter
5.      Jackie Weaver- Animal Kingdom
1.      The King’s Speech- David Seidler
2.      Inception- Christopher Nolan
3.      Another Year- Mike Leigh
4.      The Fighter- Scott Silver
5.      The Kids Are All Right- Lisa Cholodenko
1.      The Social Network-  Aaron Sorkin
2.      127 Hours- Danny Boyle
3.      True Grit- Joel & Ethan Coen
4.      Winter’s Bone- Debra Granik
5.      Toy Story 3- Michael Ardnt
1.      Toy Story 3
2.      How to Train Your Dragon
3.      The Illusionist
1.      In a Better World
2.      Biutiful
3.      Dog Tooth
4.      Incendies
5.      Outside the Law
1.      Exit Through the Gift Shop
2.      Inside Job
3.      Restrepo
4.      Gasland
5.      Waste Land
1.      Poster Girl
2.      Strangers No More
3.      The Warriors of Qiugang
4.      Killing in the Name
5.      Sun Come Up
1.      Wish 143
2.      God of Love
3.      The Crush
4.      The Confession
5.      Na Wewe
1.      The Gruffalo
2.      The Lost Thing
3.      Let’s Pollute
4.      Day & Night
5.      Madagascar, a Journey Diary
1.      The Social Network
2.      Inception
3.      The King’s Speech
4.      127 Hours
5.      How to Train Your Dragon
1.      Toy Story 3- We Belong Together
2.      I See the Light- Tangled
3.      If I Rise- 127 Hours
4.      Coming Home- Country Strong
1.      Inception
2.      Tron: Legacy
3.      True Grit
4.      Unstoppable
5.      Toy Story 3
1.      Inception
2.      True Grit
3.      The Social Network
4.      The King’s Speech
5.      Salt
1.      Inception
2.      Alice in Wonderland
3.      The King’s Speech
4.      True Grit
5.      Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
1.      True Grit
2.      Inception
3.      Black Swan
4.      The Social Network
5.      The King’s Speech
1.      The Wolfman
2.      Barney’s Version
3.      The Way Back
1.      The King’s Speech
2.      Alice in Wonderland
3.      True Grit
4.      I Am Love
5.      The Tempest
1.      The Social Network
2.      The King’s Speech
3.      Black Swan
4.      The Fighter
5.      127 Hours
1.      Inception
2.      Alice in Wonderland
3.      Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
4.      Iron Man 2
5.      Hereafter